The figure places the town behind several higher-profile rivals as the competition begins to gather pace.
The latest odds have been published weeks after Swindon was officially longlisted for the prestigious title, securing its place among the final nine locations still in the running.
At the top of the market is Wrexham with a 54.5 per cent chance. Blackpool and Middlesbrough follow, while Swindon sits behind Sheffield and Milton Keynes in the early rankings.
Swindon’s inclusion on the longlist in March was described by local leaders as a major milestone for the town’s bid.
The campaign is being led by Swindon Culture Collective in partnership with Swindon Borough Council, bringing together artists, organisations and community groups from across the town.
A range of established festivals were highlighted as part of the programme, including Swindon MELA, Swindon Paint Fest, the Swindon Festival of Literature, Old Town Festivals and the Festival of Tomorrow.
Longlisting also unlocked a £60,000 development grant. A full bid submission is due by summer 2026, with a shortlist expected later that year.
Councillor Marina Strinkovsky previously described the moment as “an extraordinary achievement”.
Councillor Jim Robbins said the town has “an incredible story to tell”.
However, the betting market suggests Swindon is not currently viewed as a frontrunner.
Jake Ashton, current affairs editor at OLBG, said:
“These markets are all about narrative and regeneration. Wrexham has momentum, but places like Blackpool and Middlesbrough have very strong cases that could shorten as the process develops.”
The comments reflect the wider challenge facing the town as it prepares the next stage of its bid.
While longlisting confirms Swindon’s credibility, the early odds indicate it still faces strong national competition.
